Sunday, September 22, 2019
International Organizations Essay International organizations have been noted to be around since the mid- 19th century and such organizations do not operate for profit. An international organization is defined by the United Nations as an organization with an international membership, scope, or presence. The main objective of all the international organizations they say ,have usually been welfare and the improvement of member countries through cooperation. Karns and Mingst identify the two main types of international organizations as IGOs and INGOs which they also refer to as international and transnational structures who are actors in global governance. Global governance, they say, are the cooperative problem-solving arrangements and activities that states and other actors have put into place to deal with various issues and problems. Firstly, Intergovernmental Organizations; herein referred to as IGOs will be discussed. IGOs are organizations that include at least three states among their membership, that have activities in several states, and that are created through a formal intergovernmental agreement such as a treaty, charter, or statute. These organizations range in size from 3 members (North American Free Trade Agreement [NAFTA]) to more than 190 members Universal Postal Union [UPU]. Within these IGOs, members can be limited to one geographic region, for example the Organization of American States (OAS), the European Union (EU) or even the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) or they may come from all geographic regions such as members of the World Bank and IMF. Some IGOs are designed for solitary purposes such as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC]), whilst others have been developed for multilateral purposes, for example the United Nations [UN]. Most IGOs though, are not global in membership but are in fact regional, wherein a commonality of interest motivates states to cooperate on issues directly affecting them. Most are small in membership and designed to address specific functions. It must also be noted that IGOs are recognized subjects of international law with separate standing from their member states. According to Karns and Mingst, IGOs function for purposes of gathering, analyzing, and disseminating data, providing a place for negotiations, creating norms and defining standards of behavior through legally binding treaties, monitoring compliance with rules, adjudicating disputes and also taking enforcement measures and for allocating resources, providing technical assistance and relief and deploying forces. Kenneth Abbott and Duncan Snidal (1998) suggest that IGOs Ã¢â¬Å"allow for the centralization of collective activities through a concrete and stable organizational structure and a supportive administrative apparatus. This increases the efficiency of collective activities and enhance the organizationÃ¢â¬â¢s ability to affect the understandings, environment, and interests of states. Ã¢â¬ In their book on International Organization Karns and Mingst say that Ã¢â¬Å"IGOs do not only create opportunities for their member states, but also exercise influence and impose constraints on their member statesÃ¢â¬â¢ policies and processesÃ¢â¬ which aids in forcing governments to take positions on international or domestic issues of concern. They also facilitate the creation of principles, norms, and rules of behavior with which states must align their policies if they wish to benefit from reciprocity. For example, ChinaÃ¢â¬â¢s admission to the World Trade Organization and how this has affected its national policies and required extensive governmental reforms. Secondly, International Non Governmental Organizations; herein referred to as INGOs will be discussed. INGOs are institutions that are established by non-state actors or at least one side of these organizations is not states. They can generally be defined as private, voluntary, non-profit, self-governing, professional organizations with a distinctive legal character concerned with public welfare aims. INGOs unlike IGOs are not created by treaties or states but rather private people and organizations and usual encompass more than three states and therefore cannot be bilateral. They employ limited resources to make rules, set standards, procreate principles and broadly represent more Ã¢â¬ËhumanityÃ¢â¬â¢ than states and other actors do. There are many kinds of NGOs such as transnational, government organized, government-regulated and initiated, business and industry, donor-organized, donor-dominated, peoples organizations, operational, advocacy, transnational social movements, quasi, and anti-governmental NGOs. Their number increased (more than 23,000 in the early 1990s) and their effectiveness for transnational politics became more relevant in recent decades. They have become crucial participants in the international policy process says Brown (1995). Some INGOs are formed to dvocate a particular cause such as human rights, peace, or environmental protection. While others are established to provide services such as disaster relief, humanitarian aid in war-torn societies, or development assistance. Many INGOs are transnational federations involving formal, long-term links among national groups. Examples include the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, the World Wildlife Fund, Transparency International, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and Save the Children. INGOsÃ¢â¬â¢ governance functions parallel many functions provided by IGOs and, like IGOs, they can be analyzed as both pieces of and actors in global governance. As pieces of governance, INGOs function to provide processes at many levels to pressure or persuade individuals, governments, IGOs, corporations, and other actors to improve human rights records, protect the environment, tackle corruption, create a ban on landmines, or intervene in conflicts such as that in the Darfur region of Sudan. Some IGOs, such as the International Labour Organization (ILO), World Tourism Organization, and the UN Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), provide for INGOs roles in their governance. As a result of global trends to privatize activities previously controlled by governments, services once provided by governments or IGOs are now often contracted out to INGOs. INGOs are important pieces of global governance because of the ways they enable individuals to act publicly through creating networks, and volunteering and this makes them useful links between the domestic and international communities and institutions. In this sense, they function as communicators among multiple levels of governance. Both Intergovernmental Organisations and International Non-governmental Organizations are of growing significance in the international community. The proliferation of non-state actors has recently led some observers of international relations to conclude that states are declining in importance and that non-state actors are gaining status and influence. New theories of international relations such as the complex interdependence of Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye (1989) were formed in order to explain new developments. Kegley and Wittkoph (1995) accurately point out that as the world grown smaller, the mutual dependence of nation-states and other transnational political actors on one another has grown Their significance can be noted not only through their international presence but also through their voice and ability to hold governments accountable for not abiding by the standards set forth through their organizations. The benefits of these two types of all the international organizations has usually been seen through its welfare improvement of member countries and its importance lies in the following: 1.Ã International organizations, such as International Trade Centre and World Trade Organization, assist member countries in promoting fair trade with each other. 2. The aim of the international organizations, such as Natural Capitalism and International Development Research Centre, is to enhance sustainable economic development in the world. 3. The World Bank and Institute of International Finance are international organizations that provide monetary help to member countries. 4. The purpose of the incorporation of international organizations, such as Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and World Food Programme, is to provide food security to member nations. 5. The endeavor of international organizations, such as Global Environment Facility and United Nations Environment Programme, is to ensure environmental protection. 6. The protection of human rights is ensured by international organizations, such as the ICJ and Amnesty International. 7.Ã Emergency/disaster relief is taken care of by several international organizations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross and ReliefWeb. 8. The WHO helps member countries promote health care and facilities. Most countries though, perceive that there are benefits to participating in IGOs and international regimes even when it is costly. South Africa never withdrew from the UN over the long years when it was repeatedly condemned for its policies of apartheid. Iraq did not withdraw from the UN when it was subject to more than a decade of stringent sanctions. China spent fourteen years negotiating the terms of its entry into the international trade system and undertaking changes in laws and policies required to bring itself into compliance with WTO rules. Additionally , INGOs too are increasingly active today at all levels of human society and governance, from local or grassroots communities to national and international politics. Many national-level groups, often called interest or pressure groups, are now linked to counterpart groups in other countries through networks or federations. International NGOs, like IGOs, may draw their members from more than one country, and they may have very specific functions or be multifunctional. IGOs have been proven to decrease the cost of information gathering which is more important for poor and small countries. Without the UN, many states are unable to obtain information about the international society and politics. Activities of IGOs, such as the UN and the IMF, are decisive for most small countries. They may impose their principles on them more easily than on big powers. Most governments; especially in less developed countries face serious resource constraints limiting their ability to apply the provisions of regimes to areas and activities under their jurisdiction. And in spite of the fact that international organizations are utilized by powerful nation-states, these states do not hold full power over IGOs. IGOs however do have notable influence in international and on the most powerful state, the United States (Karns and Mingst). IGOs have been especially successful in their effectiveness in economic issue areas is also considerably high. For example, the IMF and the World Bank are very effective in money flowing, debt management and financing debt issues between the rich and poor countries. Though still effective, IGOs are less influential in issues of high politics such as political and security issues. INGOs too play an increasingly important role in world politics through agencies, such as Greenpeace and Amnesty International who draw attention to issues of world-wide concern, promote international co-operation and they have a significant impact on the global dissemination of ideas, values and knowledge. One of the major challenges being faced by international organizations however is integrating developing countries on various measures. Health related issues, such as infant mortality in developing countries are also of great challenge. Some other challenges that international organizations are facing are in the filed of intellectual property rights, trade in services and investment measures in relation to trade. Also seen as future difficulties in the international system is the issue of multilateral liberalization due to growing regionalism and the reformation of world trade.
Saturday, September 21, 2019
Developing A Warranty Cost Model Chapter 2: literature review. 2.1. Introduction to Reliability: The reliability expression may sometimes be unclear in general logic due to the differences in understanding it among customers. Each customer can define reliability from a different point a view. As an example; a customer may define it as cheap product which has a long guaranteed life cycle period and in the meanwhile works hardly enough. Whereas another customer may define it as a reasonable price product which has a life cycle period and will definitely work as intended. (Institute et al., 1968) The concept reliability is very clear and understandable in the practical and industrial world. Reliability of a product, process, or system is the probability that it will perform as specified, and under certain condition, for a specified period of time.(2Blank, 2004) Reliability is known as the likelihood of a product, machine or a component, to keep doing its intended task without breaking down under precise conditions for a given period of time. (Yang, 2007) (Yang, 2007) The above expression holds three significant essentials to ensure the full understanding of reliability: To know the planned function or task of a product, machine and component. To know the planned duration specified relating to a product, machine and component. To know the environment surrounding where the product, machine, and component, suppose to be working at. Knowing these three essentials conditions will allow us to estimate the product, machine or component reliability capability from the first instance. 2.1.2. Reliability Engineering Studies: The purpose of reliability engineering studies is to control, or to make sure that a product, machine or component will be reliable under normal operation in a specified studied manner, as well as away from breaking downs. (Smith, 1972) Reliability engineering studies are science used to minimize the outcome effects and possible behaviour which will result in maximizing reliability. There are three necessary conditions to achieve the previous statements: To build a maximum reliability consideration into a product, machine and component, during the design and development stages; this consideration is known to be the most critical point due to its responsibility in inherent reliability. To cut down production process differences; this will guarantee that the process will not deliberately degrade the inherited reliability. Once a product is manufactured. A well maintained operation should be commenced; this will prevent the performance degradation and will extend the product life.(Hartman, 2007) These considerations are presented within a large selection of reliability techniques, as an instance; reliability planning and specification, fault tree analyses, accelerated life testing, degradation testing, reliability verification testing and warranty analysis.(Yang, 2007) 2.1.3. Reliability Main Factors: To judge on the reliability of any product, there are factors should be known, as an instance: Intentional usage or application. Product, machine and component specification. Price. Customer expectations. Level of inconvenience caused by product, machine or component breakdown. 2.1.4. Reliability Measurements: In a view of the fact that reliability is measured by probability or likelihood, any effort to measure it will engage the usage of statistical methods. Therefore statistics are very important tools in relating to reliability studies. (Yang, 2007) 2.1.5. Reliability Formula: Warranty and reliability share the same patterns for an economic sense to be observed. Reliability has been identified as the likelihood of a product to keep performing its intended task without breaking down. R= reliability. P (s): success probability. N: number of attempted trails. S: number of success. F: number of failures. Reliability mainly presents the successes and failures in a process, where a good economic warranty cost model has high accuracy in reliability prediction. Design for Reliability: Overview of the Process and Applicable Techniques. 2011. Design for Reliability: Overview of the Process and Applicable Techniques. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.reliasoft.com/newsletter/v8i2/reliability.htm. [Accessed 19 March 2011]. 2.1.6. Reliability Improvement: There are many ways by which the reliability can be affected, below are two ways: Quality is the integration of features and characteristics of a product or a service, to enable us to meet the needs and specific requirements. Repetition of the same task causing financial and labor waste. (6Condra, 2001) 2.1.7. Reliability Applications: Various phases of a power plant such as construction, production and maintenance shall apply the reliability data analysis. Such a data might be (Heyman, 1988)applicable for production planning, benchmarking , trend analysis, plant components improvement, risk issues, RCM , spare parts optimization, Design review , Structural reliability. (Heyman, 1988) Data on existing units can be effectively useful for benchmarking the unit performance, during RCM, failure preventions, the spare parts optimization.(Heyman, 1988) 2.1.8. Reliability Prediction Science: It is considered to estimate the effects of the choices made prior the system is built or put into service. Reliability prediction handles the analysing of products with the help of models better than real systems to supply a solid foundation for testing, analysing, planning, manufacturing, and estimating reliability. An ideal example of reliability prediction is to predict the system of specified design and specified group of components in an ideal working environment. At the end of the prediction the reliability of the same system should be tested in a different surroundings from those which data and prediction were obtained from earlier.(3Blischke and Murthy, 2000) Reliability prediction procedure is attempted at the very first steps of improving a program to hold up the design procedure. Commencing a reliability prediction helps in supplying clear demands of reliability enhancement within the improvement stage, and the knowledge of the possibilities of failure of the equipment in its operation life. The advantage of applying reliability prediction, machinery designs are able to develop, money is saved rather than spending on poor designs and time is preserved concerning testing. A widely used way for prediction the reliability of machinery is based on database usage, however this way is not probable due to variety types of failure rates which dramatically happen to similar products.(Geitner and Bloch, 2006) 2.1.9. Objective of Reliability Prediction: The importance of reliability prediction lies down under several points: The reliability prediction should be implemented as an assurance program in different sections of a plant. Repairing decisions are taken when and where problems appear.(Kececioglu, 2002) 2.1.10. Taxonomy Related to Reliability: Availability: It can be defined as the probability that the component will function at any random time. Mean time to failure (MTTF): The time that elapses until a failure occurs. Mean time between failures (MTBF): It is the average time between failures. It is used for repairable systems. Failure Rate: The failure rate in a time interval which is the probability that a failure per unit time occurs in the interval given. Hazard Function: The failure rate limit as the interval approaches zero.(Pham, 2006) 2.2. Reliability Centred Maintenance: The word maintenance from the engineering point of view is: to take the necessary action to maintain or restore equipment and machinery, or system to determine the practical requirement to achieve maximum validity. This includes corrective maintenance, preventive maintenance, and predictive maintenance. What is maintenance? Definition and Meaning. 2011. What is maintenance? Definition and Meaning. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/maintenance.html. [Accessed 19 March 2011]. Reliability centred maintenance or (RCM) can be expressed as an advanced study into maintenance, which joins the maintenance of interactive applications, preventive, predictive, and proactive, as well as the formation of plans to make the most of the life of the product, and also to ensure proper function for the product, machine and component at the lowest possible cost. Introduction to Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) Part 1. 2011. Introduction to Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) Part 1. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.plant-maintenance.com/RCM-intro.shtml. [Accessed 19 March 2011]. 2.2.1. Preventive Maintenance: Preventive maintenance is the programme of planned maintenance, which aims to prevent the collapse and failure. The main objective of preventive maintenance is to prevent the failure of equipment before it happen. It is designed to maintain and improve equipment reliability by replacing worn components before they fail in practice. Preventive maintenance activities include equipment checks and repairs, partial or complete checks at fixed intervals, oil changes, and lubrication and so on. In addition, workers can record equipment deterioration so they know when to replace or repair defective parts before they cause system failure. It would be an ideal preventive maintenance program to prevent all equipment failure before it happens. Preventive Maintenance. 2011. Preventive Maintenance. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.weibull.com/SystemRelWeb/preventive_maintenance.htm. [Accessed 19 March 2011]. 2.2.2. Predictive Maintenance: Techniques help to determine the status of equipments in service in order to predict when you must perform maintenance. This approach offers cost savings over routine preventive maintenance. What Is Predictive Maintenance?. 2011. What Is Predictive Maintenance?. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-predictive-maintenance.htm. [Accessed 19 March 2011]. 2.2.3. Terms and Goals of Using Reliability Cantered Maintenance: The majority of maintenance organizations classify the goals of using (RCM) by the below listed steps: Scheduling the tasks by its priority. Consider the safety prospective. To be familiar with the machinery capabilities; each type of machinery will have different performance type. Knowing the failure causes; to recognize when the right moment to reduce it is. Using skilled staff; to help out in scheduling priorities. Practicing preventative tasks; to help in knowing the machinery status. Disposing and replacing the damaged components; to ensure the effectiveness of the other related parts. Standards must be identified for each step mentioned above. It is important that the steps are done by the same staff who are responsible of the function and operation of the plant.(Tweeddale, 2003) The conditions to develop a sufficient (RCM) program depend on the success of using the observation and statistical methods, because sometimes both methods depend on each other. 2.3. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis: Mechanical failures are introduced as any significant changes regarding size, shape or material characteristics in a system. The first and main responsibility of any mechanical designer is to make sure that the design produced is capable of doing its function properly, meets the designated life time and most important is to be competitive in the market. Estimating and identifying all possible modes of failure which may restrict the functionality of the design will ensure the success in designing. The designer must be familiar with the variety collection of failure modes presented in the work sites as well as the circumstances leading to it, so the designer becomes ready to prevent failure from occurring once again. The designer should preferably have an on hand experience to investigate predictable failures in a professional manner, thus failures could be prevented in future. It is clear that the failure analysis, prediction, and preventative are significant to be known to every designer.(5Collins, 1993) The term behind the failure can be known as the failure to meet some specific performance measurements. Different between definitions terms such as defects, malfunction, fault and reject are usually vital in comparing causes of failures, as well as in the categorizing and analyzing of provided information. The different between the terminologies is mainly to define the types of failure, reasons, and level of failure. For any introduced definition of failures there are no doubts in introducing reliability. Because the failure is the absent of the specification and so changes in performance capabilities occur. (Smith, 2005) The estimation of the data could be done by two methods, first by using history data; this will enable us to have a look at similar machinery which may had experienced identical problems, warranty data, and customer feedback. Second method is conducted, by using several mathematical methods, models and simulations. Dealing with (FMEA) does not always mean that one way is better or more accurate than the other; both of the methods can be used if applied correctly. The proper way in commencing (FMEA) will result is providing helpful data which can help in reducing the hazards relating to work load in a system, product and service. The (FMEA) is one of the most efficient ways considered in preventative maintenance. The (FMEA) will help in having knowledge about what is suitable correction tasks should be done to keep failures away from happening. An effective and successful (FMEA) system could be recognized by meeting these objectives, first recognize the known and possible failures modes, and then reasons of failures. Schedule the failures modes according to the highest risk level, and finally follow up the work done to ensure the correction of the failure.(Stamatis, 2003) 2.3.1. When and Where To Use Failure Mode and Effects Analysis: The (FMEA) procedure is extensively used in different stages, regarding product designing and manufacturing processes. It offers a well organized structure and an easy way to communicate amongst the team of manufacturers. It can be used as well in developing services which will help production process.(McDermott et al., 1996) Traditional failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) are mainly used models in warranty cost among other models in the automobile industry. (Majeske, 2003) An essential term to inherent reliability into a product or system is by recognizing the failure causes, and making sure they are removed or that their likelihood of happening once again is low. This thought can be done by conducting tests, or logically by using models. Failure mode and effects analysis is a planned way in clarifying the origin of failures modes, and it is considered to be a sufficient reliability schedule, especially it links to reliability development throughout design stage.(7Denson, 2006) 2.4.4. Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP): Risk analysis is an orderly and systematic method for Examination system and risk management. In particular, are often used as a risk and operating Technique to identify potential hazards in the system and identify interoperability problems. It assumes that events are caused by the risk of design or operating intentions. This approach is a unique feature of risk and vulnerability to treatment methodology that helps to stimulate the imagination of the team Members when exploring potential deviations. Figure (2) shows a sample of HAZOP system.(Organisation and Safety, 1988) Figure (1) a sample of HAZOP system Hazard Operability Studies (Hazops) 1 of 2. 2011. Hazard Operability Studies (Hazops) 1 of 2. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.lihoutech.com/hzp1frm.htm. [Accessed 19 March 2011]. 2.3.2. Failure Prevention: Failures are predictable, sooner or later all products, machines and component will experience failure due to many reasons.(Yang, 2007) In any engineering system failures are expected. The effects of failures differentiate from little inconvenience costs to financial drops. Failures happen due to various factors, such as: Bad engineering design. Manufacturing process errors. Insufficient testing. Human mistakes. Poor maintenance. Misuse. In order to reduce failures or breakdowns in any engineering systems, there are some methods should be followed: Identify the cause and the way the failure happened. Identify how many times do the failure tends to repeat. Reliability handles the failure concepts in details via different statistical approaches. Whereas safety tries to study, specify, measure, determine, and analyze the failure.(Verma et al., 2010) 2.4. Introduction to Hazard: The accurate understanding of hazard is appreciated due to its criticality. It supplies us with the base foundation of a system safety. Hazard analysis is conducted to identify hazards consequences, and hazard main factors, As well as to determine the risks facing the system. To carry out hazard analysis in a proper manner, it is essential to recognize what causes hazards and how to define hazards. Understanding the hazard character is an important issue to improve the skills needed to identify potential hazards and their results in a system design.(Ericson, 2005) 2.4.1. Hazard Analysis: This analysis involves describing the complete process first, and then collecting the answers for a set of systematic questions. The purpose is to identify how exactly the deviations from the design can arise.Ã These deviations are further assessed by any negative effect of their consequences on the safe and efficient operation of the plant.Ã The assessment would provide a basis for any action to be taken to cure this situation. From an engineering point of view, hazard analysis process is the best tool for analyzing reliability data. It can be used to make conclusions about the reliability of a component. (12002) 2.4.2. Survival Analysis: Survival function, also known as a reliability function of the survivors, is a property of any random variable that maps a set of events, usually associated with failure of some system. 2.4.3. Hazard Rate Function: Hazard rate function can be obtained by an equation which assumes a constant hazard rate. 2.4.5. Bathtub Curve: Figure (2) illustrates the bathtub curve which demonstrates the product failure rate against time. Any product cycle life can be divided into three separate durations: The first duration (early life): This duration where the failure probability is decreased to minimum. . It what happens in the early life of most new products, sometimes the first period is mentioned as the mortality period. The second duration (normal life or useful life): This is represented in the graph by a flat line. Failures and breakdowns happen randomly within this duration. In this period the failure rate tends to become somehow constant. During this period the lowest failure rate is observed, so it is the most appropriate time to make reliability predictions. The third duration (wear out): this begins where the slope starts to rise till the end. This typically happen to products when they get old, thus the failure rate increases. Wear out is usually caused by break down due to various reasons such as physical wear and stress.(speaks, 2005) Figure (2) a bathtub curve. A Brief Introduction to Reliability. 2011. A Brief Introduction to Reliability. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.weibull.com/LifeDataWeb/a_brief_introduction_to_reliability.htm. [Accessed 19 March 2011]. 2.5. Statistical Models for Life Data: Statistical models for life data such as weibull distribution, survival analysis and warranty help in producing high accuracy in prediction. The automobile manufacturing having relied heavily on warranty interval in its warranty provision inclines more in reliability and therefore seek such analysis. (Ward and Christer, 2005) 2.5.1. Weibull Distribution: The weibull distribution is named after a Swedish professor Waloddi Weibull. He explained the ability to use the weibull distribution in small sizes measurements and it is easiness to supply an accurate model for a broad data sets. At the beginning of his exploring weibull distribution he faced some obstacles and doubts form his colleagues. However, the weibull distribution has ended now to be widely practised in reliability.(8Dodson, 2006) A reason for the wide spread of the weibull distribution is that it has a large different shapes, which makes it easy to fit any data. Also, it is perfect to show the weakest connection of a product. For example, if a system has more than one part, the weibull distribution will present each failure time of each part at the same distribution no matter how insignificant they are .(Nelson, 2003) Figure (3) is a sample of weibull a distribution plot. Figure (3) a sample of weibull distribution plot. Guidelines for Burn-in Justification and Burn-in Time Determination. 2011. Guidelines for Burn-in Justification and Burn-in Time Determination. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.reliasoft.com/newsletter/v7i2/burn_in.htm. [Accessed 19 March 2011]. 2.5.2. Kaplan Meier Survival Estimator: The Kaplan Meier estimator is named after Edward L. Kaplan and Paul Meier. It estimates the survival function. In engineering this method is used to measure the time until failure of different products, machine and components. Kaplan EL, Meier P. J Am Stat Assoc 1958; 53:457-81. [Cited by: McKenzie S, et al. JOP. J Pancreas (Online) 2010 Jul 5; 11(4):341-347. (Reference 14)]. 2011. Kaplan EL, Meier P. J Am Stat Assoc 1958; 53:457-81. [Cited by: McKenzie S, et al. JOP. J Pancreas (Online) 2010 Jul 5; 11(4):341-347. (Reference 14)]. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.joplink.net/prev/201007/ref/02-014.html. [Accessed 19 March 2011]. 188.8.131.52. Formulation: Where: t (1) 2.5.3. Exponential Distribution: This is the most commonly used distribution in reliability, and is often used to predict the probability of survival to time (t) figure (4) shows a sample of exponential distribution graph.(9Dovich, 1990) Figure (4) a standard exponential distribution graph Continuous Random Variables: The Exponential Distribution. 2011. Continuous Random Variables: The Exponential Distribution. [ONLINE] Available at: http://cnx.org/content/m16816/latest/. [Accessed 19 March 2011]. 184.108.40.206. Formulation: The probability density function is: Where Mean time to failure = Or, where 2.5.4. Disadvantages and Advantages of Statistical Method: Cost; studying and analyzing a quantity of data of different products within a system are an expensive job. The results revealed are not sufficient enough to build an understanding of the type of maintenance needed in this particular situation. The only disadvantage of the observation method appear is when applying it carelessly and without keeping record of foundings, this will result in mixing up different judgements.(4Chalifoux and Baird, 1999) 2.6. Introduction to Warranty: Warranty is a provision for a seller to provide assurance to a buyer that the product will perform as implied. (Zhou and Tang, 2008) Warranty brings confidence to the buyer; automotive vehicles like any other automated system consider warranty to a buyer. (Wu and Li, 2007) Unlike the quality loss function which assumes a fixed target and accounts for immediate issues, warranty loss occurs during the customer use. (Zhou and Tang, 2008) In automotive industry, data is tracked and analyzed regularly (Zhou and Tang, 2008). The interval can be evaluated on the basis of their costs. The effect of warranty especially in the context of the interval, affects the performance of the company especially if the number of returns on warranty is high. (Wu and Li, 2007) Neglecting the fact that warranty cost is a result of conflict between the customer expectation and the performance of the product, the interval of the warranty liability disturbs the economic sense of warranty. (Wu and Li, 2007) Warranty costs have in many companies been positioned as operational costs. (Ward and Christer, 2005) The impact of warranty in the whole business performance has challenged vehicle manufacturers to develop vehicles that are less costly to repair (Metric: Warranty $s) and are more reliable within a longer period of time. (Metric: annual failure rates, AFR) For this purpose to be done, warranty cost models that make the impact of reliability on cost and costs associated with repair of specific failure modes should be economically healthy. (Wu and Li, 2007) 2.6.1. Warranty Probability: The ratio as Pw is termed as the warranty probability (Ward and Christer, 2005). The warranty probability is the ratio of the number of complaints N against the total number of products Tp. Pw Another factor that is important in warranty cost analysis is the complaint factor. (Ward and Christer, 2005) The complaint factor is the ratio of the actual number of complaints and the potential number of complaints where the actual number of complaints is the number of actual complaints fixed. (Ward and Christer, 2005) The method for calculating the warranty probability depends on product performance and customer expectations. (Wang et al., 2010) The distance of performance is a function of the warranty interval. (Ward and Christer, 2005) It is supposed that as time passes, the distance of performance increases, this is the common feature referred to as mileage. In motor vehicles the time age of the car has been consistently assumed to be a factor representing its use. (Manna et al. 2008) Despite the fact that mileage can be determined, the correlation between mileage and age of the car is strong and positive. (Manna et al. 2008) Since vehicles manufacturing designs and model change with time, the automobile industry prefer attaching warranty to age of the vehicle rather than calibrated mileage. Warranty is a key factor in bringing confidence to a buyer. The higher the warranty time, the more the confidence is the buyer. (Manna et al. 2008) 2.6.2. Warranty Distribution Analysis: Feedback from warranty returns provides a solid basis in determining use failure distribution. (Murthy, and Blischke, 2006) The time interval as a factor contributes significantly to predictions. The warranty intervals are the most solid factor that can be used in assessing the failures prediction. By maintaining warranty and assessing failures for a longer period of time, more knowledge on the performance especially for automated systems is achieved. (Murthy, and Blischke, 2006) Reasons for carrying out warranty data analysis are the following: Forecasting warranty claims. To determine risk assessment and monitoring. Reliability assessment.(12002) 2.6.3. Reduction strategies for cost drivers There are two factors that have been identified as primary warranty cost drivers. The number of occurrence of an event which can be noticed by the analysing failure rate and the cost of the process are the identified cost drivers. (Attardi et al., 2005) The strategies employable for reduction of costs are by reducing the factors. (Attardi et al., 2005) 2.6.4. Cost model in product development The cost model has been used in product development in making economic sense of organizational existence. (Karim and Suzuki, 2005) Through its impact in influence of decision making by providing design alternatives that come handy in warranty cost, the model establishment should be in advisory of the product development through calculation of estimates of product total warranty cost. (Aldridge, and Dustin, 2006) Difference in warranty costs based on design alternatives provides a short projection of the optimized design that maintains both customer confidence through warranty and economic advantage to the organization. (Attardi et al., 2005) Identification of necessary product features, capabilities and diagnostic tools that are required in automobile projected warranty savings for the warranty intervals is achievable through the cost model in product development. (Aldridge, and Dustin, 2006) Under the foundation of the cost model, the risk involved in the warranty interval can be evaluated by analyzing the risk involved in an extension of warranty in automobiles. (Aldridge, and Dustin, 2006) It should be taken into consideration that the cost model economic impact is dependent on the period of warranty especially with automobiles that are known to wear and tear. (Karim and Suzuki, 2005) Chapter 3: case study (from notes given by doctor) Introduction: Field data in the automotive industry often comes in two types, the first is grouped data expressed by months in service. The second is ungrouped data available from company owned but customer operated fleets and expressed as miles to failure. In many scenarios, data which comes from late stages have a greater importance over the former because of the following reasons: Mileage is more objective measure of the component life than time in service. There are types of failures are not tracked by the warranty system. The complexity of censoring mechanism in relating to reliability analysis of grouped warranty data. Therefore, this theoretical case study will focus on the analysing of ungrouped mileage data which is not represented by time in service, because it comes from the company owned fleets. Aim and objective: To discuss a procedure to estimate the censoring mileage and the reliability function for a component of interest (e.g.: battery). Data: Table 1 shows a format of failure data from a customer operated fleet. The vehicle mileage is reported only at failure or service events. VIN failed / serviced comopnent failure / service mileage X009 battery 45000 X018 fuel pump 91680 X021 brake pads 78470 X006 front wipers 77350 X028 head lamp 4007 X015 clutch disks 150400 X031 front wipers 51420 X003 ign.switch 3961 X013 battery 16890 X007 front struts 27160 X026 battery 72280 X031 battery 131900 X027 door lock 7298 X017 fuel pump 4734 X
Friday, September 20, 2019
Effects Of Crime And Violence On Television As we turn on the television today, there seems to be more shows that have violence in them then ever before. The same goes true for movies and video games which the violence has a damaging effect on the society. Studies done over the last forty years show that there is a link between media violence and an increase in violet acts committed by juveniles (http://www.ehow.com/about_4595746_does-media-cause-crime.html). With a rise in the violence in juveniles it raises the question whether the media industry has any duty with the violence it shows. Some facts need to be considered when looking at media violence and children. One factor is that many of todays population watches TV. Many say that the crime rates are going up and down due to the media. Also the shows show types of criminal behavior that could be of interest to the public. Unfortunately with many studies done over the forty years scientist have looked at media and crime they have notice a fine line which cant be crossed. When watching the news do you remember hearing about fourteen year old Michael Carneal firing a .22caliberr into a prayer group (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article)? How about sixteen Luke Woodham and fifteen year old Kip Kinkel who both shot their parent and then went to school and shot some classmates (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article)? When the media represents a crime such as this the people who do the crime and its affects is how the people began to see that population (Bjornstorm, Kaufman, Peterson, Slater 2010 p.269-293). Crisis such as can be a time when a population is over-presented as to be a bad person or even under presented as if what was happening did not mattered. When this happens those who are watching TV can end up thinking this behavior is okay and start acting like them (Bjornstorm, Kaufman, Peterson, Slater 2010 p.269-293). Since the 1950s many college professors studied how crime in cartoons and TV shows affected young children (http://www.ehow.com/about_4595746_does-media-cause-crime.htm). They found that after watching the cartoons the children are more aggressive immediately afterward. Also when the parents are involved the child seems to be less aggressive as well (http://www.ehow.com/about_4595746_does-media-cause-crime.htm). Scientist today say that crime images may be a factor as to why young kids chose a life of crime. Yet if their parents are involved in their everyday lives they are less likely to live a life of crime (http://www.ehow.com/about_4595746_does-media-cause-crime.htm). As you can see the findings from the 1950s is the same the findings today. One can see that there is no real evidence to say whether watching crime on TV leads to a life of crime they allow more research to be done. With forty years of research it is still hard to say ya or nah (http://www.ehow.com/about_4595746_doe s-media-cause-crime.htm). In the case of the three teens, there was a interest that the juvenile crime rate would raise even though there was a sixty-eight percent decrease between 1993 and 1999 (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article). Of the four major crimes juveniles are arrested for such as robbery, rape, murder, and aggravated assault it dropped by thirty-six percent between 1994 and 1999 (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article). However these statistics are deceive able due to such shootings as the three teens (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article). The shootings only proofed that there is an increase in juvenile crime and not a decrease like the statistics believe. When it comes down to just how much crime juveniles are responsible for there is a tug a war between the Gallup Poll and Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article). The 2000 Gallup Poll believes that the juveniles are responsible for forty-three percent while OJJD P believes juveniles are only responsible for twelve percent (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article). To me it is not not how much crime they are responsible for, but what gave them the idea to do the crime. After being arrested for the crimes he committed, Michael Carneal was asked what gave him the idea to commit such a crime in such a way (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article). He said he had in the 1995 movie The Basketball Diaries (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article). For anyone who has seen The Basketball Diaries know that there is a character who is a promising young poet and basketball player (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112461/). He turns to the sleazy life of someone who is addicted to heroin (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112461/). In one of his highs he goes into a dream sequence in which after breaking the door to his high school down he kills his fellow classmates (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112461/). It is scenes like these that lead to real teens thinking that if they have a problem at school this is how they should deal with it. The example of Carneal is proof that television has brainwashed our daily lives. We have become addicted to the television as if it was its own special kind of drug. The media which is placed on the television can be said to target young adults and teenagers. As shown by Carneal the media influences teens to demonstrate through their body image, peer/ media pressure and sexual misconduct. Based on a study done in 1994 by the National Cable Television Association this is very true. They found that violent content of television shows increased from over one-half of prime time. By the end of the study violence took the majority of television sending bad messages to teens (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article). On top of that villains of the violent scenes seem to not get in trouble for the crimes they commit as well as the villain having no injury even after getting wounded (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article). Such depiction give teenagers the sense that it is okay to act like this and get the teenage image which is not always a good image. We all know how important a teenagers image is everything to them. They look to actors and singers on television to give them that image they are looking for. Unfortunately, singers such as TuPac, 50 cent, Britney Spear, and and Lil Kim are some who catch our teens eye. Under the image are what use to be young people who started making the right choices, but made the wrong choices. Producers of the television shows and the market pick these people due to their invisible attitude and sex appeal. Spending a few millions of dollars in advertising is no big deal to them when they sell their clothing (http://www.suite101.com/content/advertising-to-teens-a14289). When you see teenager spending so much money to fit in or to be seen by the opposite sex with that sex appeal that is advertised it is really scary. There are those who ask the advertiser why they spend millions of dollars on advertising to contract teenagers and they will deny it (http://www.suite101.com/content/advertising-to-te ens-a14289). At first glance the thug image is of someone in prison, which is what it is. Criminals receive a one size fits all outfits when they are brought to the jail. Teens try to re-create this prison image, but that is not the only thing they re-create. With the image comes the actions that comes with it. The same goes for the girls. No girl wants to put a belly shirt on or low cut jeans when they feel as though their over weight (http://www.media-awareness.ca/english/issues/stereotyping/women_and_girls/). This is when many girls become obsess with their bodies and become anorexic. All over the television you see young girls and women portrayed as femme fatale, supermom, or sex kitten (http://www.suite101.com/content/advertising-to-teens-a14289). It does not matter the role the women still looks good and gets what she wants in the end. These portrayals are what pushes them to join health clubs and attempt the fashion body as well as the anorexia. Both the thug image and the image of the you ng girls have something today with the crime since they are getting the ideas from the media. You are probably wondering what does image and violence seen on television have to do with crime caused by the media. It has more to do with it then anyone of us can about. When a villain gets shot and he does not die on top of the cool thug look it is tell guys that if they dress this way or act that way nothing will happen. In 1982 NIMH report reinforced this conclusion, and many other organizations took part in viewing media violence this way as well (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). They saw media violence as a serious threat to public health because it stimulates violent behavior by youth (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). An example of this would be on New York channels during a one week of content analysis of prime-time output, there were 3,421 acts and threats of violence observed (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article). When looking at the violent committed many of these acts were committed without any compensation for the action (http://www.enotes.com/juvenile-crime-article). Maybe that is why by the 1990s most researchers had arrived to the idea that the effect of media violence on aggressive and violent behavior was real, causal, and significant (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). Once they realized that media violence and aggression was a problem they need to figure out how to fix the problem and the long and short-term effects. Some of the short-term effects are thought to be due to observational learning and imitation (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). There is arousal and excitation as well as priming (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). Arousal and excitation are not harmful as long as the person does not start a fantasy about how a curtain girl should be. Long-term effects range from observational learning to emotional habituation (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). On the flip side some researchers see observational learning as a short-term effect. You have to remember that the reinforcements a person receives when intimidating a behavior are largely responsible for whether the behavior persists (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). Some how the consequences of sho rt-term and long-term effects are different. A good way to look at aggression is with a longitudinal study. In chapter three three we learned that that a longitudinal study is where people measured at two or more points (Aron et. al, 2008, p. 86). In this study they surveyed sixth- and seventh-grade from twenty middle schools across the US on four different occasions (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). Two components of media violence and aggressiveness were measured for three thing a piece. Media violence was measured for assessing the frequency of watching action movies, playing video games involving firing a weapon, and visiting Internet sites that describe or recommend violence (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). Aggressiveness was measured by aggressive cognition, values, and behavior (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). What makes it on the graph is on the vertical line you have average effect size represented by r (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf /pspi/pspi43.pdf). On horizontal line you have five behaviors. Three have to do with aggressiveness while the last two have have to do with helping behavior and physiological arousal. There is also an standard error. Standard errors are shown in research articles as the lines that go above the tops of the bars (Aron et. al, 2008, p. 186). When they were done with the study they said that it was weak and that more studies needed to be done. That is where the meta-analysis comes in and the fact that maybe parents should play a bigger role. Meta-analysis looked at the methodological feature of the study in greater detail (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). When they did so they divided the study into two categories without using the methodological problems (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). In doing so for the five behaviors the best study was chosen to show how they affect each child. Here is an example of the graph from the article I got my information from. 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 Aggessive aggressive Aggressive Helping PH behavior cognition affect behavior arousal Parents have a big responsibility to make sure that their children are watching the right television shows. Even though there are some parents out there who do not care what their children watch there are ways to educate parents what these shows are doing to our children. A study done by Singer and Singer stated that when parents take an active interest in what their children are watching the child is more likely to tell the difference between realism and not (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). It has also been reported that when a parent restricts access to violent television there is a report of lower aggressive tendencies (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). We all know that when parents are involved children are less to get in trouble. Parents cant do all the work. The government and those who make the shows nee to take responsibility for what they make as well. Today efforts such as the V-chip and media education have been used to lessen the effects of media violence, but there is still not a stop. They talk about a gap that needs to be filled when it comes to some parts of the research (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). What they do know is that when you reduce exposure you reduce aggression (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf). Even with the V-chip and educating parents the media world is changing and so how parents protect their children from aggression will change as well. It seems like they will like to see the media world helping as well (http://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/pspi/pspi43.pdf).
Thursday, September 19, 2019
The Telephone And Its Corporation Ã Ã Ã Ã Ã The phone is easily one of manÃ¢â¬â¢s most important, useful and taken for granted inventions. The telephone has outgrown the ridicule with which it first received, now in most places taken for granted, it is a part of many peopleÃ¢â¬â¢s daily lives. It marvelously extended the ways man converses that it is now an indispensable help to whoever would live the convenient life. All disadvantage of being deaf and mute to any persons, which was universal before the advent of the telephone, has now happily been overcome. Before I tell of the history of how the telephone was constructed and put in to place I will tell of the past of communications. Ã Ã Ã Ã Ã Ever since the ability of language and written language the most popular form of communication was done through a letter. Others were as documented in 1200 BC in HomerÃ¢â¬â¢s Illiad were signal fires. Carrier pigeons were used in the Olympic games to send messages from 700 BC to 300 AD. In 1791 the Chappe brothers created the Semaphore system; they were two teens in France who wanted to be able to contact each other from their different school campuses. This system consisted of a pole with movable arms, which the positions took the place of letters of the alphabet. Two years later this idea had caught on and was being used in France, Italy, Russia, and Germany. Two semaphore systems were built in the U.S. in Boston and on MarthaÃ¢â¬â¢s Vineyard; soon Congress was asked to fund a project for a semaphore system running from New York City to New Orleans. Samuel Morse told Congress that not to fund the project because he was developing the electric telegraph. Soon Samuel Morse developed his electric telegraph he demonstrated it in 1844 it caught on and by 1851 51 telegraph companies were in operation. And it continued to grow to 2250 telegraph offices nationwide. In 1876 Alexander Graham Bell patented the telephone. Ã Ã Ã Ã Ã Alexander Graham Bell was born on March 3, 1847 in Edinburgh. He grew up deeply involved in the study of speech due to his father and grandfathers work. He was also a talented musician able to play by ear from a very early age, and, had he not been more interested in what his father was doing to help people speak, he might have ended up as a professional musician. He and his two brothers built a model human skull and filled it with a good enough reproduction of the human vocal apparatus, which worked with a bellows, so it would be able to say, "Ma-ma.
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Quietly walking behind him in a dark alley, I could see him stalk a young schoolgirl. I didn't want my presence to be known. I could see him, fallowing her closely to her house. Right when she opened the front door of her house, he jumped towards her, and pushed her into the house, bolting the door behind him. My suspicions became clear. I knew what had to be done. I broke down the door, and grabbed a nearby coat hanger. (hehe) Scanning the room, I couldn't see anything strange. Making my way around the house, I could faintly hear a muffled scream from upstairs. I ran up, knocking down a vase on accident. (Freaking coat hanger) Breaking down another door (my foot started to hurt after this one) I could see him desperately trying to part her legs. I threw the coat hanger at him, hitting him right in the head. The impact threw him down to the floor, giving her a chance to get out of the room. It was just between us two now. He removed a knife from its sheath, and pointed it at me. I w asn't really ready for this, but I searched my pockets and I found aÃ¢â¬ ¦ lighter. This is going great I thought to myself. He jumped at me, slicing me in the arm. My wound was bleeding very badly, and my arm began to numb. He jumped at me once again, but this time, I grabbed him by the arm and hit him at the elbow. His arm made a sharp cracking noise, and he screamed in pain. I kicked his knee, and another crack noise could be heard. At least now he won't be jumping at me anymore. I pinned him to the floor, and with a flick of my wrist, lighted the lighter. Pointing it towards his eye, I could see his eye slowly deplete its moisture, and in a few seconds, it was nothing more than a raisin. He struck at me again with his left arm, and hit me right below the eye. I fell back at the attack, and he was quickly on top of me, knife at my throat. I burned his other eye and he rolled back with his hand over his eye. I could already see that his eye was beginning to turn gray from the hea t. He threw the knife at me, and I kicked it away.
Tuesday, September 17, 2019
The impact that the prospects of deprivatization have on investment by managers of privatized firms is that these managers will come to a realization that additional investments are prone to more risks in respect to the potential payback. In this situation, the time frame for returns on investments is shortened immensely. The uncertainty stems from the longer time frame, which results in managers hesitating from entering as a private firm. If this notion of deprivatization is upholded upon organizations, the owners will potentially lose any gains they may possess. The effect that deprivatization will have on foreign investments in Russia is that foreign financiers will comprehend the political risks of deprivatization in Russia is vital to the success of many organizations. They will be tentative to make capital investments in Russian businesses because there will be no security that there will be any return, regardless of how prosperous the prospect may seem to be. Deprivatization would primarily be for foreign private business owners considering they can take their profits and send them back to their home countries. For the most part, the Russian economy would behoove having some deprivatization influenced businesses and industries. From an overall standpoint and point of view, Russia has benefited with the movement of a free market but consequently would hinder the underprivileged population if the amount of supply were not readily available. Ã¢â¬Å"Free market economy under centralized political control is the most effective way for these countriesÃ¢â¬ (EconomyWatch, 2010). When one is questioning the beneficiaries of political and economic decisions, the first ones to benefit from this would be the family and friends of these politicians. Also many workers will become at an advantage because since deprivatization creates openings in positions once held by other owners, these positions, once deprivatized, become readily available to be occupied. People they know and people they surround themselves with such as family, friends and such often fill these positions. The ones that would lose in a deprivatization firm are normally the foreign investors that are affiliated. Immediate losers in deprivatization efforts are usually foreign investors. If more people are hurt by deprivatization than helped, the local politicians would support such a policy because they would want to portray an image that shows they know what they are doing and what they are doing is in the best interest of the people. More often than not, when a political figure makes a mistake or does something that is not in the best interest of the people admitting to their mistake is by far the last thing they will do. This would make them seem weak and unknowledgeable. Adversely, they will embrace their mistake and make it part of what they intended to do from the beginning. Ã¢â¬Å"Economic decisions in a market system are decentralized to individuals who are likely to have the relevant specific knowledgeÃ¢â¬ (Brickley, Smith, Zimmerman, 2009). References Brickley, J.A., Smith, C.W., & Zimmerman, J.L. (2009). Managerial economics and Organizational architecture (5th ed.). New York: McGraw Hill/Irwin. EconomyWatch (2010). Advantages of Market Economy. Retrieved from http://www.economywatch.com/market-economy/advantages-market- economy.html
Monday, September 16, 2019
Frederick Douglass has finally managed to run away from one of his masters to become a free slave, but yet he feels fear and paranoia. As he runs away, he contemplates all the possibilities of him getting caught by slaveholders or even turned in by his own kind. And it upsets him having to pass all the houses and food, but he has no shelter and starves with no food. This in fact heightens the intensity of his fear and paranoia because he is more likely to be caught with no where to hide and having no energy to run because he is starving. In The Narrative Life of Frederick Douglass, he utilizes things such as parallel syntactic structure, paradoxes, figurative language, and caesuras to help portray his feeling of built up unease and terror. Frederick Douglass really takes advantage of parallel syntactic structure to compare his situation of being run away to slaves. Frederick tries to get us to feel empathy in his current condition, while also speaking of the slaves. He says Ã¢â¬Å"-wanting shelter and no one to give it-wanting bread, and no money to buy it [Ã¢â¬ ¦]Ã¢â¬ (Douglass 137). This seems more difficult to live with than having somewhat of shelter and having a bit of food, rather than Douglass having neither. He gets readers to question such things as, would one turn in a man in such need as? Would one understand more if one knew how it was to be in my condition? And this gets people to understand his despair and distress. Douglass uses his paradoxes in a creative way. Where he uses parallel syntactic structure, he also utilizes paradoxes. On page 137, where he says Ã¢â¬Å"-wanting shelter and no one to give it-wanting bread, and no money to buy it [Ã¢â¬ ¦]Ã¢â¬ (Douglass). His use of contradiction is quite effective because it is hard to have all the things you want and need in oneÃ¢â¬â¢s face, but one can not have it. For example, if a person wanted a new bike and one was just sitting there in their house waiting for them to take it, but their father was standing next to it and if he saw them touch it they would be grounded. And the bike was just sitting there taunting them. The paradoxes get people to understand how irritating it is to be passing by all these necessities stay you need to live and survive, taunting you as you pass by. While Douglass is running away, he relates slaves and hunting slaveholders, using figurative language, to wild beast and himself to the helpless prey. On page 136, Douglass says Ã¢â¬Å"Ã¢â¬ ¦as hideous crocodiles seize upon his prey!Ã¢â¬ He says this because he feels so defenseless that he feels like a little animal going to be eaten. With all the slaveholders and there guns and all slaves that might turn him in, he doesnÃ¢â¬â¢t really stand a chance with no where to hide and running out of energy. In addition, on page 137 he says Ã¢â¬Å"Ã¢â¬ ¦famished fugitive is only equaled by that with which monsters of the deep swallow up the helpless fish upon which they subsist,Ã¢â¬ In this he basically saying it is only a matter of time before they find him and take him in. He canÃ¢â¬â¢t really run from them with how hungry he is, he has no energy and no hope that he could out run them if he tried. On pages 136 and 137, caesuras are applied multiple times throughout these pages to conduct a sense of his worry and anguish. He says like Ã¢â¬Å"Ã¢â¬ ¦in total darkness as to what to do, where to go, or where to stay -perfectly helpless both as to the means of defense and means of escape-Ã¢â¬Å" (Douglass 137) The breaks leave you kind of hanging because you donÃ¢â¬â¢t know if at the end of the next break he could be caught or even shot. And that is where the worry builds because while he was running away he didnÃ¢â¬â¢t either if at any second a slave would show up and turn him in. Or a slaveholder would shoot him from behind a tree. So a person really get into his shoes as a run away slave and sort of feel what it is like. Frederick Douglass really utilized these devices well. They all help build the reader to become like a fugitive slave just as he was. Relating slave and slaveholders to animals, and putting all the caesuras help the reader feel all the unease he felt because it was exactly how he was feeling. You would think at first that he was free now, and all his problems were gone yet they are still there. All the devices he used really help you come to that conclusion.